Hurricane Milton, with its once-in-a-century potential, could cause over $50 billion in damage, possibly reaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to top Wall Street analysts. This comes on the heels of destruction left by Hurricane Helene, potentially setting a record for devastation. Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar noted that while it's too early to estimate insured losses, a major hurricane hitting one of Florida's densely populated areas could result in mid-double-digit billion-dollar losses. A 1-in-100-year event might lead to $175 billion in losses if it makes landfall near Tampa and $70 billion near Fort Myers. The impact will depend on timing and location, with Fort Myers being less costly. For context, Hurricane Ian struck near Fort Myers two years ago as a Category 4 storm, causing over $50 billion in losses and was considered a 1-in-20-year event. If Milton follows its current path through the more developed Tampa area, potential losses could be even greater. Currently at Category 4, Milton may weaken before its full impact is felt.
Wells Fargo has observed that the market is anticipating losses exceeding $50 billion, surpassing those from Hurricane Ian. The firm has projected a broad range of potential damages, from $10 billion to $100 billion. Recently, the region was severely affected by Hurricane Helene, which struck 12 days ago and caused devastation estimated at approximately $11 billion by Moody’s. Additionally, Moody’s predicts that the National Flood Insurance Program could face losses nearing $2 billion. Analysts have yet to assess potential damages from Hurricane Milton. "Hurricane Helene has been the most significant event of the 2024 hurricane season so far," stated Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s, "though this may soon change with Major Hurricane Milton expected to impact Florida in the coming days."
Moody’s highlighted that many areas severely impacted by Helene lack flood insurance. As a result, most damages will be uninsured, with economic property losses significantly exceeding insured losses, according to Firas Saleh, the firm’s director of U.S. inland flood models. Meanwhile, Milton has weakened slightly but still carries winds of 145 mph. It is forecasted to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning, bringing storm surges of 10 to 15 feet to Tampa Bay. Although the expected damage in the region is substantial, Milton does not pose the same threat to neighboring states that were affected by Helene.